I always wondered how Iceland could have a couple of banks that were offering great interest rates on savings, yet still have UK FSCS backing, so you get a pay out if they go bust.
Actually, Landsbanki has only partial FSCS cover, the Iceland government has to stump up the first 15 grand, which is why I favoured Kaupthing when looking for a good place to dump savings, but I’ll come to that…
Now lets look at some facts… Iceland has 300,000 residents and, since having visited there a few years ago, I have no idea how they can afford anything as the environment is harsh and I didn’t really see any industry. It’s not surprising, with only 300,000 people, you’ve got no economies of scale and so I reckon they are relying on tourism. Maybe they have some special natural resource well I don’t know about.
Anyway, their interest rate is 15%, so inflation must be rampant and their currency must be sinking like a stone. How are their government going to stump up the £15,000 per UK depositor, now that Landsbanki has folded? They’ve got no chance, UK depositors have put billions there, way too much to pay back.
If the Iceland government borrowed the money from Sweden or some other country that said they’d back them, they’d never be able to pay back the interest. Quite how they managed to get accepted into the FSCS scheme at all is beyond me.
The way I see it is that the Iceland economy is like a dragster engine, it was entering into huge financial deals, with difficult to value parameters (i.e. high interest rate, probably strong currency devaluation), and all looks fantastic until the fan belt snaps. For the Icelandic banks, that’s it, game over, no limping home with a misfire and some strange engine noises like the UK, the Iceland engine will be trashed.
How do you, Joe Punter, calculate the risk of lending your savings to Landsbanki, in an economy on steroids? Answer - you can’t, so it’s not worth the risk, unless you can get good insurance. Sadly the insurance in this case was the Iceland goverment, with just 300,000 population. If you had savings there, good luck getting them back.
So what about Kaupthing? Well, I had a small wad of cash to stash earlier this year and they were looking good with a high interest rate on instant access accounts and a full £35k FSCS guarantee, unlike Landsbanki. The 12-month rate looked good also, but I didn’t trust them that much due to the reasons above, so I stuck with instant access.
Good job I did, because I think that Kaupthing will go bust also. Today I transferred all my cash from them into a UK bank. I don’t really want to be a guinea pig for the FSCS when they bail out Kaupthing savers, because whilst they may offer the protection, they’ve never had to provide it and you could be waiting for ages for your money, it’s not like they’ve got nothing else to do right now.
Moving savings into the UK feels like jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire, but I’ll take my chances. I’m just glad I don’t own any property…